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COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience after Disasters
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2 2018
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Source: Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 12(1):127-137
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Alternative Title:Disaster Med Public Health Prep
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Personal Author:
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Description:Objective:
Policymakers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.
Methods:
We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time-course of community functioning before, during and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all U.S. counties.
Results:
The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning, and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.
Conclusions:
The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience.
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Pubmed ID:28633681
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC8743042
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Volume:12
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Issue:1
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