COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience after Disasters

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Disaster Med Public Health Prep
• Personal Author:
  Links, Jonathan M. ; Schwartz, Brian S. ; Lin, Sen ; Kanarek, Norma ; Mitrani-Reiser, Judith ; Sell, Tara Kirk ; Boddie, Crystal R. ; Ward, Doug ; Slemp, Cathy ; Burhans, Robert ; Gill, Kimberly ; Igusa, Tak ; Zhao, Xilei ; Aguirre, Benigno ; Trainor, Joseph ; Nigg, Joanne ; Ingelsby, Thomas ; Carbone, Eric ; Kendra, James M.
• Description:
  Objective:
  
  Policymakers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster.
  
  Methods:
  
  We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time-course of community functioning before, during and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all U.S. counties.
  
  Results:
  
  The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning, and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature.
  
  Conclusions:
  
  The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Adaptation, Psychological Disaster Planning Disaster Victims Humans Models, Theoretical Reproducibility Of Results Residence Characteristics Systems Analysis
• Keywords:
  Chlorination Community Functioning Household Water Treatment Resilience Safe Water Storage System Dynamics
• Source:
  Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 12(1):127-137
• Pubmed ID:
  28633681
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC8743042
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/ ; P01 TP000288/TP/OPHPR CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  12
• Issue:
  1
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:60e717a5753199c93e194a575510995ee302e7f031a07418bba11b86bb6138d0
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/113241/cdc_113241_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.44 MB ]