Details:

Alternative Title:
Syst Dyn Rev
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1589
Personal Author:
Tebbens, Radboud J. Duintjer ; Thompson, Kimberly M.
Tebbens, Radboud J. Duintjer ; Thompson, Kimberly M. Less -
Description:
The long-term management of global disease eradication initiatives involves numerous inherently dynamic processes, health and economic trade-offs, significant uncertainty and variability, rare events with big consequences, complex and inter-related decisions, and a requirement for cooperation among a large number of stakeholders. Over the course of more than 16 years of collaborative modeling efforts to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, we developed increasingly complex integrated system dynamics models that combined numerous analytical approaches, including differential equation-based modeling, risk and decision analysis, discrete-event and individual-based simulation, probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, health economics, and optimization. We discuss the central role of systems thinking and system dynamics in the overall effort and the value of integrating different modeling approaches to appropriately address the trade-offs involved in some of the policy questions. We discuss practical challenges of integrating different analytical tools and we provide our perspective on the future of integrated modeling.
Subjects:
[+]
Article Decision Analysis Health Economics Integrated Modeling Polio Eradication Systems Thinking
Source:
Syst Dyn Rev. 34(1-2):78-120
Pubmed ID:
34552305
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC8455164
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
U2R GH001913/GH/CGH CDC HHSUnited States/
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:6648eb7c2573606d767122143631d3c7074d5129aca5cc6861ef4b17e3c501b5
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/110298/cdc_110298_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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