Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Borchering, Rebecca K.; Viboud, Cécile; Howerton, Emily; Smith, Claire P.; Truelove, Shaun; Runge, Michael C.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Contamin, Lucie; Levander, John; Salerno, Jessica; van Panhuis, Wilbert; Matt Kinsey, PhD; Tallaksen, Kate; Obrecht, R. Freddy; Asher, Laura; Costello, Cash; Kelbaugh, Michael; Wilson, Shelby; Shin, Lauren; Gallagher, Molly E.; Mullany, Luke C.; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin; Lemaitre, Joseph C.; Dent, Juan; Grantz, Kyra H.; Kaminsky, Joshua; Lauer, Stephen A.; Lee, Elizabeth C.; Meredith, Hannah R.; Perez-Saez, Javier; Keegan, Lindsay T.; Karlen, Dean; Chinazzi, Matteo; Davis, Jessica T.; Mu, Kunpeng; Xiong, Xinyue; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro; Srivastava, Ajitesh; Porebski, Przemyslaw; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Adiga, Aniruddha; Lewis, Bryan; Klahn, Brian; Outten, Joseph; Schlitt, James; Corbett, Patrick; Telionis, Pyrros Alexander; Wang, Lijing; Peddireddy, Akhil Sai; Hurt, Benjamin; Chen, Jiangzhuo; Vullikanti, Anil; Marathe, Madhav; Healy, Jessica M.; Slayton, Rachel B.; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Johansson, Michael A.; Shea, Katriona; Lessler, Justin

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Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

May 5, 2021
By Borchering, Rebecca K. ; Viboud, Cécile ; Howerton, Emily ; ...
Series: MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report ; v. 70, early release, May 5, 2021

[PDF-296.16 KB]

English

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Details:

Personal Author:

Borchering, Rebecca K. ; Viboud, Cécile ; Howerton, Emily ; Smith, Claire P. ; Truelove, Shaun ; ... More +

Borchering, Rebecca K. ; Viboud, Cécile ; Howerton, Emily ; Smith, Claire P. ; Truelove, Shaun ; Runge, Michael C. ; Reich, Nicholas G. ; Contamin, Lucie ; Levander, John ; Salerno, Jessica ; van Panhuis, Wilbert ; Matt Kinsey, PhD ; Tallaksen, Kate ; Obrecht, R. Freddy ; Asher, Laura ; Costello, Cash ; Kelbaugh, Michael ; Wilson, Shelby ; Shin, Lauren ; Gallagher, Molly E. ; Mullany, Luke C. ; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin ; Lemaitre, Joseph C. ; Dent, Juan ; Grantz, Kyra H. ; Kaminsky, Joshua ; Lauer, Stephen A. ; Lee, Elizabeth C. ; Meredith, Hannah R. ; Perez-Saez, Javier ; Keegan, Lindsay T. ; Karlen, Dean ; Chinazzi, Matteo ; Davis, Jessica T. ; Mu, Kunpeng ; Xiong, Xinyue ; Pastore y Piontti, Ana ; Vespignani, Alessandro ; Srivastava, Ajitesh ; Porebski, Przemyslaw ; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan ; Adiga, Aniruddha ; Lewis, Bryan ; Klahn, Brian ; Outten, Joseph ; Schlitt, James ; Corbett, Patrick ; Telionis, Pyrros Alexander ; Wang, Lijing ; Peddireddy, Akhil Sai ; Hurt, Benjamin ; Chen, Jiangzhuo ; Vullikanti, Anil ; Marathe, Madhav ; Healy, Jessica M. ; Slayton, Rachel B. ; Biggerstaff, Matthew ; Johansson, Michael A. ; Shea, Katriona ; Lessler, Justin Less -
Corporate Authors:

Pennsylvania State University. ; John E. Fogarty International Center for Advanced Study in the Health Sciences. ; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. ; Geological Survey (U.S.) ; University of Massachusetts at Amherst. ; ... More +

Pennsylvania State University. ; John E. Fogarty International Center for Advanced Study in the Health Sciences. ; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. ; Geological Survey (U.S.) ; University of Massachusetts at Amherst. ; University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh. ; Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. ; École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne. ; University of Utah. ; University of Victoria (B.C.) ; Northeastern University (Boston, Mass) ; University of Southern California. ; University of Virginia. ; CDC COVID-19 Response Team. Less -
Description:

What is already known about this topic? Increases in COVID-19 cases in March and early April occurred despite a large-scale vaccination program. Increases coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variantss and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

What is added by this report? Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.

What are the implications for public health practice? High vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January–March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible Variantss of SARS-CoV-2, the Virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 Prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential Trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April–September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2–3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new Variantss, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health Prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

Suggested citation for this article: Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, et al. Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 5 May 2021.

mm7019e3.htm?s_cid=mm7019e3_w

mm7019e3-H.pdf
Subjects:

[+]

CoronaVirus Infections/Epidemiology COVID-19/Epidemiology Disease Outbreaks Forecasting Hospitalization Models, Statistical Mortality
Series:

MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report ; v. 70, early release, May 5, 2021
Document Type:

Journal Article
Place as Subject:

United States
Pages in Document:

6 numbered pages
Volume:

70
Collection(s):

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:bae6394eb2e6e08453f0c807809fa13ebd2760f33e300100d43c24f799e1a407
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/105827/cdc_105827_DS1.pdf
File Type:

mm7019e3.htm

htm

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