Emerg Infect DiseidEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-6059Centers for Disease Control92042892627615Research ArticleThe economic impact of a bioterrorist attack: are prevention and postattack intervention programs justifiable?KaufmannA. F.MeltzerM. I.SchmidG. P.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30333, USA.Apr-Jun1997328394

Understanding and quantifying the impact of a bioterrorist attack are essential in developing public health preparedness for such an attack. We constructed a model that compares the impact of three classic agents of biologic warfare (Bacillus anthracis, Brucella melitensis, and Francisella tularensis) when released as aerosols in the suburb of a major city. The model shows that the economic impact of a bioterrorist attack can range from an estimated $477.7 million per 100,000 persons exposed (brucellosis scenario) to $26.2 billion per 100,000 persons exposed (anthrax scenario). Rapid implementation of a postattack prophylaxis program is the single most important means of reducing these losses. By using an insurance analogy, our model provides economic justification for preparedness measures.