Click here for additional data file.
Alcohol is the fifth leading risk factor for death and disability accounting for 4% of life years lost due to disease.
The most widely proposed mechanism for this purported cardioprotective effect of alcohol is an increase in high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol.
In the absence of a viable randomised trial to confirm or refute the cardioprotective effect of light to moderate alcohol consumption, an alternative approach is to use a genetic variant that serves as a proxy for alcohol consumption. This approach, known as Mendelian randomisation, avoids some of the key limitations of observational studies, since allocation of genetic variants is random with regard to potential confounders, and genotype is not modified by disease (abolishing reverse causality).
Given that the rs1229984 genetic variant is not represented in widely available genotyping platforms such as Illumina-metabochip, Illumina-immunochip, or genome-wide association platforms (with the exception of recent platforms), we initially focused on studies genotyped with the IBC Cardiochip array, which contains this single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). Through contact with the designer of the Institute for Translational Medicine and Therapeutics (ITMAT) Broad Institute CARe consortium (IBC) CardioChip array (B J Keating,
We incorporated individual participant data from 261 991 participants of European ancestry from 56 studies (see appendix). All participants provided written, informed consent, and ethical approval was granted by local ethics committees for participating studies. Ethical approval for secondary data analysis was granted by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ethics committee (application No 5905).
The principal alcohol trait was weekly volume of alcohol in British units (1 British unit is equivalent to 0.57 US units or 10 ml (7.9 g) ethanol), which we derived using questionnaire data from each study (table S2 in the appendix). We additionally assessed the overall drinking status (drinkers
The primary clinical event was incident and prevalent (including fatal and non-fatal) coronary heart disease. Secondary clinical outcomes were stroke and type 2 diabetes. Stroke included all subtypes and consisted of incident and prevalent (including fatal and non-fatal) cases. In a subsample, information on ischaemic stroke was also available. For type 2 diabetes, we restricted the analysis to prevalent cases with the exception of one nested case-cohort that included incident cases.
Genotyping platforms, genotype frequencies, Hardy Weinberg equilibrium P values, and call rates (median of 98.8%) for
A standard analysis protocol was applied to each study to produce a consistent dataset. Analyses were conducted using individual participant data in each study and then pooled across studies using meta-analysis. Because of differences in variables collected by each study, not all studies were included in all analyses (fig S2 of appendix). We restricted analyses to individuals of European descent with data for
We investigated the shape of the association between alcohol consumption (log units/week) and cardiovascular biomarkers and potential confounders in observational analysis among 131 490 individuals from 28 studies. Statistical details are given in supplementary methods 2.2 of the appendix.
For all genetic analyses, we used a dominant model due to the low prevalence of the rs1229984 A-allele (average carriage of rs1229984 A-alleles: 7%): data from carriers of either one or two rare A-alleles were pooled and compared with individuals homozygous for the G-allele (the reference group). We first quantified the effects of rs1229984 A-allele on alcohol traits as well as on lifestyle and social factors to validate our instrument for alcohol consumption. Then, we studied the associations of the rs1229984 A-allele with cardiovascular biomarkers from several pathways that may mediate the effects of alcohol on cardiovascular events. Finally, we evaluated the effects of the rs1229984 A-allele on coronary heart disease, combined subtypes of stroke (as well as ischaemic stroke separately) and type 2 diabetes.
For continuous traits, means and standard deviations were derived for rs1229984 A-allele carriers and non-carriers. For binary traits, log odds ratios and standard errors were estimated for rs1229984 A-allele carriers versus non-carriers. All effect estimates were calculated within each study and then pooled using fixed (default) and random effects meta-analysis. Between study heterogeneity was quantified using I2.
If the U shaped association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular events is real, a comparison of event rates in rs1229984 A-allele carriers (associated with a reduction in alcohol consumption from published studies
In order to investigate potential residual confounding by population stratification, we adjusted for principal components derived from IBC CardioChip array
In the current manuscript, we did not conduct an instrumental variable analysis to estimate causal effects since the available methods assume a linear association between the exposure and the outcome, which may not hold for alcohol and cardiovascular disease.
Analyses were conducted in Stata v13.0 (StataCorp, Texas, USA). All P values reported are two sided.
We approached 59 studies, of which 56 were included in this collaboration. Of the three excluded studies, two (INTERHEART and INTERSTROKE) declined to participate because of overlap with existing projects, and a third (CoLaus) was excluded as the rs1229984 genetic variant was not directly genotyped.
Of the 261 991 participants in our analysis, 48% were women, and the mean age per study was 58 years (range 26-75 years) (table S4 of appendix). The median number of alcohol units consumed in each study is shown in table S4. There were 20 259 coronary heart disease events, 10 164 stroke cases (4339 ischaemic strokes) and 14 549 type 2 diabetes cases (table S5). Means and distributions for continuous traits in all studies are presented in tables S6-S8. The observational analysis between alcohol and cardiovascular risk factors is reported in the supplementary results section and figures S2 and S3 of the appendix.
Carriers of the rs1229984 A-allele consumed fewer units of alcohol per week (−17.2% units/week (95% confidence interval −18.9% to −15.6%)) and had lower odds of being in the top third of drinking volume (odds ratio 0.70 (0.68 to 0.73)) compared with non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers also had lower odds of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (0.73 to 0.84)), increased odds of being self reported abstainers (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) and lower levels of γ-glutamyltransferase (−1.8% (−3.4% to −0.3%)) (table 1
The association of the rs1229984 A-allele with alcohol volume remained unaltered when stratified by age, gender, geographical region, Hardy Weinberg Equilibrium P value, and whether the alcohol questionnaire used was beverage specific (fig S4 of appendix), or after exclusion of samples with a proportion of A-allele carriers >10% (approximately >5% minor allele frequency; data available on request). A meta-regression analysis of the mean alcohol volume (on the log scale) in rs1229984 A-allele carriers compared with non-carriers that takes into account the uncertainty around the mean suggested a constant proportional effect of the of
Pooled estimates of association between genetic variant
| Alcohol consumption measure | No of studies, cases/individuals | Effect estimate (95% CI) | P value | I2 value (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Intake volume (units/week†) | 46, NA/218 969 | −17.22 (−18.86 to −15.55) | 5.5×10−76 | 64 |
| γ-glutamyltransferase level (U/L) | 15, NA/97 755 | −1.84 (−3.40 to −0.26) | 0.028 | 36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Top tertile of alcohol intake | 45, 69 229/222 332 | 0.70 (0.68 to 0.73) | 9.8×10−67 | 60 |
| Binge drinker‡ | 21, 22 198/131 290 | 0.78 (0.73 to 0.84) | 1.4×10−12 | 47 |
| Alcohol abstainer‡ | 32, 24 482/189 854 | 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34) | 2.6×10−19 | 73 |
NA = not applicable.
*Non-normally distributed variables were natural log transformed and mean differences on the log scale were converted to percentage differences.
†Alcohol units in British units; 1 UK unit = 0.57 US units or 10 mL (7.9 g) ethanol.
‡For definitions of binge drinker and alcohol abstainer, see table S2 in appendix.
Carriers of the rs1229984 A-allele had lower systolic blood pressure (−0.88 (−1.19 to −0.56) mm Hg) compared with non-carriers. Concordant with this, rs1229984 A-allele carriers also had lower odds of hypertension (104 570 cases; odds ratio 0.94 (0.91 to 0.98)). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower levels of interleukin-6 (−5.2% (−7.8% to −2.4%)), C reactive protein (−3.4% (−5.7% to −1.1%)), body mass index (−0.17 (−0.24 to −0.10) kg/m2), and waist circumference (−0.34 (−0.58 to −0.10) cm). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers also had lower non-HDL cholesterol concentrations (−0.03 (−0.05 to −0.01) mmol/L) (table 2
Pooled estimates of association between genetic variant
| Biomarker | No of studies, individuals | Effect estimate (95% CI) | P value | I2 value (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Systolic blood pressure (mm Hg) | 48, 227 559 | −0.88 (−1.19 to −0.56) | 4.1×10−8 | 26 |
| Anthropometric measures: | ||||
| Body mass index (weight (kg)/(height (m)2)) | 51, 232 570 | −0.17 (−0.24 to −0.10) | 3.4×10−6 | 52 |
| Waist circumference (cm) | 42, 140 923 | −0.34 (−0.58 to −0.10) | 6.2×10−3 | 41 |
| Inflammation: | ||||
| Log transformed interleukin 6 (% difference)* | 17, 30 950 | −5.15 (−7.82 to −2.40) | 2.90×10−4 | 33 |
| Log transformed C reactive protein (% difference)* | 42, 124 498 | −3.40 (−5.68 to −1.05) | 4.60×10−3 | 1 |
| Lipids: | ||||
| Non-HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) | 46, 202 794 | −0.03 (−0.05 to −0.01) | 5.10×10−3 | 25 |
| Log transformed triglycerides (% difference)* | 46, 205 824 | 1.61 (0.66 to 2.57) | 8.90×10−4 | 36 |
| HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) | 46, 203 440 | −0.004 (−0.012 to 0.003) | 0.259 | 54 |
*Non-normally distributed variables were natural log transformed and mean differences on the log scale were converted to percentage differences.
When the effect of the
Although we observed that rs1229984 A-allele carriers had higher triglyceride levels (1.6% (0.7% to 2.6%)), this effect was not modified by alcohol categories (fig 1
There was no overall difference between rs1229984 A-allele carriers and non-carriers in HDL cholesterol concentration (−0.004 (−0.012 to 0.003) mmol/L). However, an association between rs1229984 A-allele carriage with HDL cholesterol was observed in the highest category of alcohol consumption, but in the opposite direction to that expected from observational findings (0.04 (0.02 to 0.06) mmol/L; fig S8 of appendix). (That is, the log-linear association of HDL cholesterol with alcohol consumption from observational studies (fig S3) would suggest that a reduction in alcohol consumption, as observed for carriers of the rs1229984 A-allele, should associate with a reduction in HDL cholesterol levels.) In subgroup analysis by laboratory procedures and major study characteristics, we observed that rs1229984 A-allele carriers from northern Europe had lower levels of HDL cholesterol (−0.04 (−0.05 to −0.02) mmol/L). Since this geographical specificity could reflect residual population stratification in samples outside northern Europe, we adjusted for principal components in a subset of individuals not from northern Europe. The unadjusted model for the association between rs1229984 A-allele and HDL cholesterol (0.02 difference in standard deviation (95% confidence interval −0.02 to 0.06)) did not differ from the model adjusted for population structure (0.01 difference in standard deviation (−0.03 to 0.05)) (fig S8). Similar null results were observed for apolipoprotein A1 (table S9 of appendix).
Rs1229984 A-allele carriage was not associated with carotid intima medial thickness, electrocardiographic measures of left ventricular hypertrophy, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, factor VII, fasting blood glucose, N-terminal of the prohormone brain natriuretic peptide, or lipoprotein(a) overall (table S9 of appendix). For these traits, similar null results were observed when stratified for alcohol consumption or by other exploratory subgroups (P>0.05 for 47 of 48 comparisons, data available on request), with the exception of fasting glucose and lipoprotein(a), where the strength of association was more pronounced in heavy drinkers compared with other alcohol categories (P values for heterogeneity 0.05 and 0.01, respectively) (fig S9).
Carriage of the rs1229984 A-allele was not associated with physical activity, but showed higher odds of ever smoking (odds ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.09)). However, the association with ever smoking was in the opposite direction to that seen in observational analysis, and no association was observed for other quantitative measures of tobacco exposure such as cigarettes per day, pack years, or cotinine levels. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers showed higher total years in education (0.04 difference in standard deviation (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.08)). No differential effect of
Rs1229984 A-allele carriage showed reduced odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.84 to 0.96, I2=17%)) (fig 2
Although there was no association of the rs1229984 A-allele with the combined stroke subtypes (odds ratio 0.98 (0.90 to 1.07)) (fig 3
Random effect estimates for associations of
Adjustment for population structure did not alter the rs1229984 A-allele associations (figs S15-16). The gene variant was not in linkage disequilibrium with previously reported loci from genome-wide association studies for any cardiovascular trait (table S11).
In this large scale Mendelian randomisation analysis, we showed that carriers of the rs1229984 A-allele had lower levels of alcohol consumption and exhibited lower levels of blood pressure, inflammatory biomarkers, adiposity measures, and non-HDL cholesterol, and reduced odds of developing coronary heart disease, compared with non-carriers of this allele. In contrast to previous observational and experimental studies, our study showed that individuals with a genetic predisposition to consume less alcohol had lower, not higher, odds of developing coronary heart disease regardless of whether they were light, moderate, or heavy drinkers. Moreover,
The rs1229984 A-allele showed very strong association with non-drinking and amount of alcohol consumed. The fact that our analyses suggested a constant proportional effect of the rs1229984 A-allele on alcohol volume across a wide range of alcohol volume from the included studies supports the notion that social pressure in heavier drinking cultures is unlikely to override the effect of the genetic variant on alcohol consumption.
For the cardiovascular traits that showed association on overall with the rs1229984 A-allele, null or substantially reduced associations were observed in non-drinkers and more pronounced associations in heavy drinkers when compared with light to moderate drinkers. This is as expected under the assumption that the effect of this genetic variant is only explained by exposure to alcohol.
From the U shaped association seen in observational studies, we would expect that for drinkers below the nadir (12-25 units/week), a reduction of 17.2% in alcohol consumption (corresponding to rs1229984 A-allele carriage) would lead to a small increase in the risk of coronary heart disease, whereas for those with alcohol consumption above the nadir, a similar reduction in alcohol consumption would lead to a decrease in coronary heart disease risk. Contrary to these expectations, however, we found that individuals below the nadir with a genetic predisposition to consume less alcohol had lower odds of developing coronary heart disease at all categories of alcohol consumption (fig 2
Major strengths of this international collaboration are the large sample size, availability of detailed alcohol phenotypic data and a comprehensive repertoire of cardiovascular risk factors and major cardiovascular events. The process by which studies were recruited into the collaboration, including mainly unpublished data, means that findings are unlikely to suffer from publication bias. The use of a standardised analytical protocol further increases reliability of the findings.
The lack of association of the
We also did not identify associations of the rs1229984 A-allele with coagulation markers, type 2 diabetes, and the combined subtypes of stroke. With regard to coagulation markers, these results seem more robust for fibrinogen, as confirmed by subgroup analysis. For factor VII and von Willebrand factor, reduced sample size limited our ability to exclude a small effect.
Although we observed an overall null association of the rs1229984 A-allele with type 2 diabetes and blood glucose concentration, a stratified analysis by alcohol consumption showed that, among heavy drinkers, carriers of the rs1229984 A-allele had lower levels of glucose and a directionally consistent relationship with type 2 diabetes. It is interesting that we did not observe a stronger protective association of coronary heart disease in heavy drinkers for carriers of the
One of the advantages of a mendelian randomisation study is that this design is less prone to some of the biases of observational studies. In contrast to observational analyses that have shown associations of alcohol with physical activity and different measures of smoking,
Our findings compare with findings from studies in east Asians, using the rs671 genetic variant of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 gene (
One feature in common to both
These data show that individuals of European descent with a genetic predisposition to consume less alcohol had a reduced risk of coronary heart disease and ischaemic stroke, and lower levels of several established and emerging risk factors for cardiovascular disease. These findings suggest that reductions of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, may be beneficial for cardiovascular health. Our results therefore challenge the concept of a cardioprotective effect associated with light to moderate alcohol consumption reported in observational studies and suggest that this effect may have been due to residual confounding or selection bias.
Although the association of the
Observational studies suggest that consuming alcohol in heavy amounts is deleterious for cardiovascular health, whereas light to moderate consumption may be protective
However, findings for light to moderate drinkers could be due to unaccounted bias
Use of a genetic approach in an analysis of over 260 000 participants showed that carriers of a variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (
Under the principles of mendelian randomisation, these findings suggest that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health
Members of the InterAct Consortium and IMPROVE study group are listed in the supplementary appendix.
We thank Dr Kieran McCaul (Western Australian Centre for Health & Ageing, Centre for Medical Research, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia) for help with analysis of the Health in Men Study (HIMS) cohort.
Contributors: All coauthors satisfy the recommendations outlined in the ICMJE Recommendations 2013. All coauthors provided substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work or acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work, and helped with drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content. All coauthors approve this version of the manuscript and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. MVH, CED, and JPC are guarantors for the study, had full access to all of the data in the study, and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Funding of individuals
Dr Michael V. Holmes is funded by a UK Medical Research Council (MRC) population health scientist fellowship (G0802432). Dr Abbas Dehghan is supported by NWO grant (veni, 916.12.154) and the EUR Fellowship. Dr James Meschia receives support from a Clinical Investigator grant from the Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Prof Mika Kivimaki was supported by the Medical Research Council; the British Heart Foundation; the Economic and Social Research Council; the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI: HL36310); and the National Institute on Aging (AG13196), US, NIH. Prof. Dr. J. W. Jukema is an Established Clinical Investigator of the Netherlands Heart Foundation (grant 2001 D 032). Dr Owen Ross is funded by the James and Ester King Foundation and the Florida State Department of Health, the American Heart Association and the Myron and Jane Hanley Award in Stroke research. Prof Sir Michael Marmot is supported by a Medical Research Council Professorship. Dr Johan Sundstrom is supported by the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (grant 20041151), the Swedish Research Council (grant 2007-5942). Dr. Alex Reiner was supported by a contract HHSN268200900009C from the NIH National Heart Lung and Blood Institute. Dr James Y. Dai was supported by a R01 grant from the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (HL 114901). Prof Hugh Watkins and Prof Martin Farrall are members of the Oxford British Heart Foundation (BHF) Centre of Research Excellence. Dr Daniel Swerdlow was supported by a MRC doctoral training award, and acknowledges support of the UCL MBPhD programme. Prof Frank Dudbridge is supported by a MRC grant (G1000718). Dr Jaroslav Hubacek was supported by MH CZ - DRO („Institute for Clinical and Experimental Medicine - IKEM, IN 00023001“). Dr Richard Silverwood is supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (NCRM Pathways node, ES/I025561/2). Professor Steve E. Humphries is supported by the British Heart Foundation (PG/2008/008). Prof Kuh, Prof Hardy and Dr Wong were supported by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12019/1). Dr Folkert W. Asselbergs is supported by National Institute of Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and Netherlands Heart Foundation (2014T001). Dr. Jorgenson is supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA: AA021223-01). Ajna Hamidovic was funded by MD Scientist Fellowship in Genetic Medicine (Northwestern Memorial Foundation) and the National Research Service Award F32DA024920 (NIH/NIDA; Ajna Hamidovic). Dr. Spring’s work is supported by NIH HL075451. This work was supported in part by BHF Programme Grant RG/10/12/28456. Professors Lawlor and Davey Smith and Dr Zuccolo work in a research unit that receives funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12013/1 and MC_UU_12013/5). Dr. Buxbaum’s research is supported in part by P20MD006899 awarded by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health. Professors Aroon D. Hingorani and Juan P Casas are supported by the National Institute of Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre.
Funding of studies
Statement of independence from funders: All researchers acted independently of study funders. The study funders played no role in study design and the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data and the writing of the article and the decision to submit it for publication. None of the funders influenced the data analysis or interpretation of results. The comments made in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of any funders.
Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at
Data sharing statement: No additional data available
Transparency declaration: The lead authors, MVH, CED, and JPC (the manuscript’s guarantors) affirm that the manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned (and, if relevant, registered) have been explained.
Cite this as: