Conceived and designed the experiments: CLR CSA CR. Analyzed the data: CLR CSA CR. Wrote the paper: CLR CSA CR.
Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases pose a threat to both humans and animals. This common threat is an opportunity for human and animal health agencies to coordinate across sectors in a more effective response to zoonotic diseases. An initial step in the collaborative process is identification of diseases or pathogens of greatest concern so that limited financial and personnel resources can be effectively focused. Unfortunately, in many countries where zoonotic diseases pose the greatest risk, surveillance information that clearly defines burden of disease is not available. We have created a semi-quantitative tool for prioritizing zoonoses in the absence of comprehensive prevalence data. Our tool requires that human and animal health agency representatives jointly identify criteria (e.g., pandemic potential, human morbidity or mortality, economic impact) that are locally appropriate for defining a disease as being of concern. The outcome of this process is a ranked disease list that both human and animal sectors can support for collaborative surveillance, laboratory capacity enhancement, or other identified activities. The tool is described in a five-step process and its utility is demonstrated for the reader.
The majority of emerging or reemerging infectious diseases originate in animals
Given the realities of finite fiscal and personnel resources for both public health and animal health institutions in all countries, joint prioritization of zoonoses has the potential to benefit both sectors as efforts are made to conduct efficient and effective surveillance, develop laboratory capacity, target outbreak response, implement disease control strategies, and identify research activities. However, accomplishing the task of prioritization in a manner that is transparent and useful for all stakeholders can be challenging even in the best of situations; the paucity of quantitative data for decision-making and lack of framework required for multi-sectoral collaboration can significantly impede the process. Taking a collaborative approach to the priority-setting process ensures equal input from stakeholders in both human and animal health sectors, and ideally results in a ranked list of zoonoses that can inform joint efforts in areas of overlapping interest.
Historically recognized methods for prioritization have been adapted by health officials to identify infectious diseases, of both public and animal health importance, for national surveillance and risk-assessment
| Method | Definition | Examples |
| Qualitative | Qualitative methods rely on subjective individualpreference and, in group settings, are often based ona process that creates consensus among group members | Delphi method |
| Semi-quantitative | Semi-quantitative methods also rely on individualpreference, but allow choices to be ranked relativeto each other using a numerical scale | Analytic HierarchyProcess |
| Quantitative | Quantitative methods rely on numerical scalesthat are designed to reflect objective values(e.g. prevalence or incidence) | Decision Tree Analysis |
*The nature of the questions used in the decision tree will determine if the process is quantitative or semi-quantitative.
Published descriptions of infectious disease prioritization processes vary by the number of pathogens ranked, the number of criteria chosen and the methods used for ranking criteria and scoring pathogens (
| Author | Purpose ofPrioritization(Country/Region) | No. ofPathogensRanked | No. ofCriteriaUsed | Methods Used | |||
| To SelectCriteria | ToRank/WeightCriteria | To ScorePathogens | To DetermineFinal Pathogen Rank | ||||
| Doherty J,2000 | To establishpriorities for nationalcommunicabledisease surveillance(Canada) | 43 | 10 | Discussionby 10 SMEs | Equal weight | Consensusscoring usingthe Delphimethod | Sum of pathogenscores |
| McKenzie Jet al., 2007 | To prioritizepathogens for awildlife diseasesurveillance strategy(New Zealand) | 82 | 3 | Not stated | Equal weight | Individualscoring byunstatednumber ofteammembersusing bothquantitativeand semi-quantitativescales. Eachpathogenscored byonly oneperson | Multiplication ofall three criteriascores |
| Cardoen Set al., 2009 | To prioritize food-and water-bornezoonoses most relevantas hazards in the foodchain (Belgium) | 51 | 5 | Not stated | Weightsassigned by 7risk managersusing thesemi-quantitativeLas Vegasmethod | Individualscoring by 35SMEs using asemi-quantitativescale: 0–4.Mean scoreused in finalanalysis | Sum [criterionweight × pathogen score] |
| Havelaar ATet al., 2010 | To support thedevelopment ofnational surveillancesystems for emergingzoonoses (Netherlands) | 86 | 7 | Not stated | Weightsassigned by7 riskmanagers,11 SMEs,and 11medicaland veterinarystudentsusing thequantitativemethod ofprobabilisticinversion | Scored using aquantitativenatural scalewith 4–5 levelsfor eachcriterion. Pointscorerepresentingcentral value inrange used forfinal analysis | Linear model usedto combinecriteria weightswith transformedpoint scores foreach pathogen |
| Balabanova Yet al., 2011 | To rank commonpathogens based ontheir importance fornational surveillanceand epidemiologicalresearch in order toguide future research(Germany) | 127 | 10 | Not stated | Weightsassigned by86 SMEsusing semi-quantitativescoring scale0–10. Averageof medianscore used asfinal weight | Consensus scoringusing the Delphimethod | Sum [criterionweight × pathogen score] |
| Humblet MFet al., 2012 | To prioritize 100animal diseases andzoonoses (Europe) | 100 | 57 dividedinto 1 of 5categories | Discussion bySMEs | Weightsassigned by40 SMEsusing thesemi-quantitativeLas Vegasmethod | Individual scoringby 40 SMEs usingasemi-quantitativescale: 0–7. Meanscore used in finalanalysis | Sum [5 categoryscores] where:Categoryscore = Sum [criterion weight× pathogen score]× category weight |
| Ng V andSargeant JM,2012 | To describe asystematic andquantitative approachto the prioritizationof zoonoses in NorthAmerica involvingpublic participants(United States andCanada) | 62 | 21 | Nominal grouptechnique | Criteria scoresdeterminedby emailedsurveys to1,539members ofthe publicusing thequantitativeConjointAnalysismethod | Scored usingquantitative 3–4level scaledefined based onrange of valuesexhibited in theliterature | Hierarchical Bayesmodels fitted toderive CA-weighted scores |
| Ng V andSargeant JM,2013 | To develop a point-scoring system toderive a recommendedlist of zoonoses forprioritization (UnitedStates and Canada) | 62 | 21 | Nominal grouptechnique usedin focus groupswith 54participantsfrom medical,veterinary andnon-healthbackgrounds | Criteria scoresdeterminedby emailedsurveys to1,471 healthprofessionalsusing thequantitativeConjointAnalysismethod | Scored usingquantitative 3–4level scale definedbased on range ofvalues exhibitedin the literature | Hierarchical Bayesmodels fitted toderive CA-weighted scores |
| Cediel N et al.,2013 | To establish prioritiesfor zoonosessurveillance,prevention and control(Colombia) | 32 | 12 | Based oncriteriadevelopedby Krause etal., 2009 | Weightsassigned by12 SMEs usingsemi-quantitativescoring scale 0–12. Average ofmedian scoresused as finalweight | Consensus scoringusing the Delphimethod | Sum [criterionweight × pathogen score] |
| Batzukh Zet al., 2013 | To strengthensurveillance andresponse activitiesand laboratorycapacity betweenhuman, animal andenvironmental sectors(Mongolia) | 29 | Not stated | Not stated | Not stated | Not stated | Not stated |
*Only publications that include a final ranked list of pathogens are referenced in the table.
In contrast to existing prioritization processes, the One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization (OHZDP) Tool was developed specifically to meet the needs of those working in areas where quantitative data on zoonoses are scarce and ties between the human and animal health sectors may be underutilized. Using established qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative methods, the OHZDP Tool seeks to build collaboration between diverse stakeholders and provide a dynamic list of prioritized zoonoses that can be used to justify research and allocate funding. Four important requirements of the prioritization tool were identified during the development process. Specifically, the Tool is designed to:
Allow equal input from stakeholders in all invested sectors using transparent methods.
Accommodate diversity in location (i.e. globally), scale (i.e. local, national, regional), and intended purpose (i.e. project development, surveillance, research activities, etc.) of the prioritization process.
Acknowledge data limitations and utilize alternative disease data to create a prioritized list of zoonotic diseases when data specific to the region are not available.
Provide outcomes in a timely manner so that participants may give immediate feedback and capitalize on collaborations built during the prioritization process.
The OHZDP Tool addresses the above requirements in a series of five steps (
In order to provide a clear understanding of the process, an example of the expected outcome is provided after each step in the process is described below. The example is not representative of any specific government or country institution, but is intended to give the reader an idea of how the process proceeds stepwise.
Once the need for joint prioritization is recognized and the intent for the product of the prioritization process is agreed upon (i.e. how the prioritized list will be used for collaboration by the stakeholders), a group of suitable representatives of all stakeholders is identified and asked to participate. Based on focus group research, the recommended number of participants should be between 6 and 12 people in order to balance variation in opinion with a manageable group size
With the purpose of the prioritization in mind, a list of zoonoses of jurisdictional importance to the stakeholders is generated. This list can be compiled by a single person or group (not necessarily the selected stakeholder representatives), and should make use of all available internal and external sources. The list should be thoughtfully generated and include zoonoses and vector-borne diseases with animal reservoirs suspected to be of local importance; rather than an exhaustive enumeration of all possible zoonotic diseases. The list is brought to the table at the beginning of the group meeting, and may consist of diseases (e.g. Salmonellosis), pathogens (e.g.
Example:
Purpose: To determine which zoonoses will receive funding for joint surveillance projects between a human health agency and an animal health agency in ‘Country X’.
Stakeholders include both the human and animal health agencies. Each agency chooses five representatives to participate in the prioritization process for a total of 10 participants.
Prior to the scheduled group work, one representative from both the human and animal health agency work together to develop the list of zoonoses to be ranked. The list includes: all zoonotic pathogens currently under surveillance by either the human or animal health agency; and any zoonoses known to be present in the human or animal population in Country X or in any bordering country as determined by a PubMed literature search, reports to ProMED-mail, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health (known as OIE for its acronym in French). The list generated includes 20 zoonoses, all of which are categorized as individual pathogens except for several bacterial foodborne zoonoses (
The selected group of 6–12 stakeholder representatives meets to brainstorm and develop a list of criteria that will be used to define what qualifies a zoonosis as being important. Five to nine criteria are agreed upon through moderated discussion, but not ranked at this time. The range in number of criteria
| Examples of Criteria for Selection | Examples of Candidate CategoricalQuestions Used to Define Each Criteria |
| Transmission potential betweenhumans and animals | |
| Epidemic/pandemic potential in humans | |
| Bioterrorism potential | |
| Amenability to collaborate/collaborationalready established | |
| Economic burden of disease | |
| Severity of illness in humans | |
| Ability to prevent/control the zoonoticdisease in the country | |
*The handout is provided to participants to stimulate conversation and is not intended as an exhaustive list of possibilities.
Only one categorical question is chosen to represent each criterion.
Example:
The ten representatives meet and select the following criteria (not listed in any specific order) as important to determining joint surveillance priorities: Bioterrorism potential, severity of illness in humans, economic burden of disease, amenability to collaborate, and epidemic potential.
One categorical question is composed for each criterion using the same group of representatives. The questions can have binomial (e.g. yes/no) or multinomial answers that must be ordinal in nature (e.g. <10%, 10–50%, >50–75%, >75%). The ordinal nature of the answers is necessary for the scoring process used in the decision-tree analysis described in Step 5. Numerical cutoff values should be selected carefully, as different cut points will alter scores for some pathogens, and should provide good discrimination among diseases. In order to simplify the process, no more than 5 ordinal categories are recommended; this is consistent with the quantitative scales used by previously described methods
The Tool provides a list of sample categorical questions for each of the criteria listed (
Example:
The ten representatives develop the following questions and answers to represent criteria selected in Step 2:
Bioterrorism Potential:
Severity of Illness in Humans:
Economic Burden of Disease:
Epidemic Potential:
Amenability to Collaborate:
The selected criteria are ranked using the semi-quantitative Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
Example:
Each of the ten representatives individually ranks the criteria developed in Step 2 using the AHP process with the assistance of the Excel program. The individual scores are combined to produce a final ranked list of criteria, and are given weights based on their rank:
Severity of Illness in Humans (weight = 5)
Bioterrorism Potential (weight = 4)
Economic Burden of Disease (weight = 3)
Capacity to Collaborate (weight = 2)
Epidemic Potential (weight = 1)
A decision tree is built in Microsoft Excel using the highest ranked criterion as the first node, the second highest ranked criterion as the second node, and so on. The previously formulated categorical questions and answers delineate the path that diseases will follow. The pathogens identified in Step 1 move through the decision tree based on responses to the categorical questions at each node. Responses or “decision branches” are weighted based on the weight given to each criterion in Step 4. When answers are binomial, a score of 1 is applied to one answer and a score of 0 is given to the other answer. The answer given a ‘1’ will receive the full weight of the criterion. For questions with multinomial answers, scores are given in increasing levels determined by dividing the answer’s ordinal position by the total number of answers to the question (e.g. A question with 4 ordinal answers: score for
Example (
The criteria and questions shown are examples only, provided to show the process of how each zoonotic disease is scored. Criteria and questions are developed and given weights by the stakeholder representatives during the facilitated group work in Steps 2–5. Weighted scores for each question are summed to give the total weighted score for each pathogen; total weighted scores are normalized in relation to the maximum pathogen score to give a final ranked list.
The question for the first criterion (severity of illness in humans) has a binomial answer (yes/no); it was decided that the ‘yes’ answer receives the score of 1. For the example of rabies, the answer to question 1– “Is the case fatality rate in humans greater than 10%?”– is ‘yes,’ therefore the score of 1 is multiplied by the weight of the criterion (weight = 5) and the weighted score = 5. This process is applied to all questions with binomial answers.
The question for the fourth criterion (capacity to collaborate) has a multinomial answer (neither/at least one/both), with ‘neither’ receiving the lowest score (
The final score for rabies is 8, or the sum of the weighted scores for each question
As governments and institutions move toward a multi-sectoral approach to zoonotic disease prevention, control, and research, effective channels for collaboration are required.
Equal input from all participants is achieved in steps 2 through 4, combining group discussion and individual ranking to generate a weighted set of criteria and associated questions to be used in the decision tree analysis. Although qualitative methods, in this case group agreement on criteria and questions, have been criticized for lack of transparency and for the potential introduction of bias that can occur when employed in group settings
The OHZDP Tool provides flexibility to diverse stakeholders invested at local, national, or regional levels by allowing the group to first determine the purpose of the prioritization process and then define criteria and questions relevant for ranking the list of zoonoses. The example of ‘Country X’ used in this paper defines its purpose as ‘funding allocation for disease surveillance at the national level’ and creates a list of all zoonotic pathogens that are geographically relevant and of national interest. Alternatively, the Tool could be used by a university or research institution to determine which zoonotic diseases should be the focus of the upcoming funding cycle. In this case, the list may be smaller and limited to the current investigators’ pathogens of interest or current research.
Strictly quantitative methods provide a more unbiased approach to decision-making because choices are based on data. For example, in health decision-making, people can examine health parameters for different diseases and prioritize them based on burden of disease estimates, provided good quality data are available. Quantitative methods have been applied to prioritize diseases, specifically in developed countries
Integral components of collaborative work include respect for time and the ability to act on decisions made by the group. Although the OHZDP Tool was designed with the desired outcome of a prioritized list in mind, it also builds collaboration through the process. By coming together as a group, representatives are able to understand how other stakeholders view the importance of zoonoses to their relative sectors; developing criteria together helps to frame the zoonoses in relation to group priorities. The OHZDP Tool provides Microsoft Excel programs to assist in group ranking of criteria (Step 2) and in the final ranking of pathogens in the decision tree process (Step 5), which together with facilitated group work results in a rapid and transparent method for zoonoses prioritization.
In the pilot trials of the tool, Steps 2–4 could be completed in a one-day time period. The decision tree process, which can be completed primarily by the facilitator or other assigned individuals, can take up to another half or full day of time depending on the number of zoonoses selected for analysis. This means that participants know the results of the ranked criteria at the end of the first group session, and the results for the final ranked pathogen list can be ready within 24 hours. Rapid turnaround allows further discussion and a timely output that can be used immediately for its intended purpose.
To provide further clarification for the five steps in the OHZDP Tool, the complete output from one pilot study is provided in the supporting information. For this particular pilot study, the authors brought together six professionals currently active in zoonotic disease research. Three of the participants were asked to assume the role of representatives from a fictional country’s Ministry of Health and three from the Ministry of Agriculture. They were provided a list of 17 zoonoses (
The authors are aware that further validation of the OHZDP Tool is an optimal next step; however, the OHZDP Tool is similar to other tools in its design, as each step of the prioritization process (selection of criteria, weighting of criteria, scoring of pathogens, and final determination of pathogen rank), employs a previously validated prioritization method (
Future pilots of the Tool will assess its internal validity by repeating the process using different representatives from the same stakeholder groups and comparing the final prioritized lists using non-parametric tests. In addition, results of sensitivity tests for the impact of each criterion and the importance of assigned criteria weights will be documented to assess their influence on the final ranking of the diseases. And finally, although the range of number of participants, criteria and categories for questions were provided using documented sources
In summary, the OHZDP Tool was developed for use by organizations or institutions interested in prioritizing zoonoses; the purpose of the prioritization can vary based on stakeholder needs, but can ultimately serve to identify areas of overlapping interest, focus the use of limited resources, and maximize the impact of zoonotic disease related activities. The Tool presented here differs from others in its ability to combine individual and group decision making processes together with limited disease data in a manner that is flexible enough to meet the needs of multi-sectoral groups with differing levels of jurisdictional reach. The authors feel the tool offers a transparent and timely process for those who wish to prioritize zoonoses using a collaborative approach and welcome any questions or comments on the Tool’s potential utility.
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