To assess the incidence of and risk factors for clinical and subclinical dengue virus (DENV) infection, we prospectively studied 1,207 adult short-term travelers from the Netherlands to dengue-endemic areas. Participants donated blood samples for serologic testing before and after travel. Blood samples were tested for antibodies against DENV. Seroconversion occurred in 14 (1.2%) travelers at risk. The incidence rate was 14.6 per 1,000 person-months. The incidence rate was significantly higher for travel during the rainy months. Dengue-like illness occurred in 5 of the 14 travelers who seroconverted. Seroconversion was significantly related to fever, retro-orbital pain, myalgia, arthralgia, and skin rash. The risk for DENV infection for short-term travelers to dengue-endemic areas is substantial. The incidence rate for this study is comparable with that in 2 other serology-based prospective studies conducted in the 1990s.
Dengue virus (DENV) is a flavivirus transmitted through the bite of an infected
The incubation period for DENV infection is 3–14 days. Manifestations are nonspecific and range from asymptomatic to severe (
DENV has 4 distinct serotypes. Primary infection with 1 serotype confers lifelong immunity to that serotype but increases the risk for severe dengue illness after secondary infection with another serotype (
During the past few decades, dengue has emerged in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide (
However, valid research on travelers’ risk for DENV infection is scarce. To our knowledge, only 2 prospective studies, performed in the 1990s (
We prospectively estimated the prevalence and incidence of DENV infection and its risk factors. Our findings are based on serologic testing in a cohort of short-term travelers from the Netherlands to dengue-endemic areas.
We prospectively studied persons attending the travel clinic of the Public Health Service Amsterdam during October 1, 2006–September 30, 2007. All persons
All participants were seen by a medical doctor or nurse who specialized in travel medicine. They received vaccinations, a prescription for antimalarial chemoprophylaxis if required, and oral and written information about how to avoid acquiring travel-related diseases, including mosquito-borne infections, according to Dutch National Guidelines on Traveler’s Health Advice (
Before departure (just before they received the required vaccinations) and 2–6 weeks after return, participants donated venous blood samples for serologic testing. Before departure,they completed a standard questionnaire to collect data on sociodemographic factors, including travel history, vaccination status, and the purpose of travel (tourism, work/education, or visits to friends and/or relatives).
Participants were given a digital thermometer and asked to take their temperature (axillary or rectally) when feeling feverish. They kept a structured travel and posttravel diary to record symptoms and signs of dengue illness (fever, myalgia, arthralgia, headache, retro-orbital pain, skin rash, signs and symptoms of gastrointestinal disease), use of insect repellent containing N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide (DEET), and use of mosquito netting. Participants were asked to report both the presence and absence of symptoms and preventive measures on a daily basis; after travel, the diary was checked by a registered nurse in the participant’s presence.
To encompass the incubation period of DENV infection, we used data from the third day after arrival at the travel destination until 2 weeks after return from travel. With respect to symptomatic outcome, we used the term travel-related to refer to this period.
Destinations were grouped into regions by using the classification of the United Nations Development Agency (
The Medical Ethics Committee of the Academic Medical Centre Amsterdam approved the study protocol. Participants were included only if they provided informed and written consent.
Blood samples were immediately stored at 6°C, then centrifuged and frozen at –80°C within 24 h after collection. After all study participants had returned, all posttravel serum samples were thawed and tested for immunoglobulin (Ig) M antibodies to DENV antigen by using an IgM-capture ELISA and for IgG antibodies to DENV antigen serotypes 1, 2, 3, and 4 by using an indirect ELISA (Panbio Diagnostics, Brisbane, Queensland,Australia) according to the manufacturer’s instructions. For participants whose posttravel sample yielded positive test results for anti-DENV IgM or IgG, pretravel samples were also tested for anti-DENV IgM or IgG, respectively.
The ELISA for anti-DENV IgM has a sensitivity of 87%–100% and a specificity of 96% (
Serology suggestive for previous DENV infection was defined as an anti-DENV IgG >11 Panbio units in both the pretravel and the posttravel sample. The posttravel-to-pretravel anti-DENV IgG ratio was <4:1.
We defined seroconversion indicating recent DENV infection. Criteria were as follows: 1) posttravel anti-DENV IgM >11 Panbio units with pretravel anti-DENV IgM <11 Panbio units and anti-DENV IgG <11 Panbio units; and/or 2) posttravel anti-DENV IgG >11 Panbio units and pretravel anti-DENV IgG <11 Panbio units, with a posttravel-to-pretravel ratio of
To calculate risk factors for previous DENV infection, we used SPSS for Windows version 17.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) to obtain prevalence rates, univariate and multivariate prevalence rate ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by using logistic regression modeling. All variables with an overall p value <0.05 in univariate analysis were included in multivariate analysis. Statistical interactions between variables were checked for all variables. If significant (p<0.05), they were included in multivariate analysis.
We calculated attack rates of recent DENV infection per 100 travelers by dividing the number of seroconversions by the total number of participants. Incidence rates (IR) per 1,000 person-months were calculated by dividing the number of seroconversions by the total number of months in which participants were at risk for DENV infection. To calculate risk factors for recent DENV infection, incidence rate ratios (IRR) were obtained as conditional maximum-likelihood estimates of the rate ratio, with mid-P exact test, 95% CIs, and p values. We quantified the application of a protective measure against mosquito bites by dividing the number of days the measure was applied by the number of travel days; it was dichotomized by using the mean of this proportion in the total study population as the cutoff.
Travel during the rainy months was assessed by using the midtravel dates. The rainy months per destination were defined as months with an average total precipitation of >100 mm, based on World Weather Information Service data from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organisation (
We used χ2 tests to evaluate the predictive value of travel-related signs and symptoms for recent DENV infection. Fever was defined as a body temperature
The study began with 1,276 participants who intended to travel to dengue-endemic areas. Of these, 69 (5.4%) were excluded: 33 were lost to follow-up; 23 had their travel arrangements cancelled; 7 did not supply the posttravel blood donation; 3 changed travel plans such that inclusion criteria were not met; 2 did not complete the structured diary; and for 1, the posttravel sample was lost.
Most of the remaining 1,207 participants were persons of Dutch origin who were traveling for tourism and previously had traveled to dengue-endemic areas (
| Characteristic | Total, no. (%) | Previous DENV | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | PR, % | PRR (95% CI) | p value | PRR (95% CI) | p value | ||||
| No. participants | 1,207 (100) | 78 | 6.5 | NA | |||||
| Sex | |||||||||
| M | 521 (43) | 29 | 5.6 | 1 | |||||
| F | 686 (57) | 49 | 7.1 | 1.3 (0.81–2.1) | 0.27 | ||||
| Median age, y, IQR | 38, 29–51 | 49, 35–59 | 1.04 (1.02–1.06) | <0.0001 | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | 0.003 | |||
| Country of birth | |||||||||
| Non–dengue-endemic country | 1,118 (93) | 40 | 3.6 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Dengue-endemic country | 89 (7) | 38 | 43 | 20.1 (11.9–34.0) | <0.0001 | 14.4 (8.1–25.6) | <0.0001 | ||
| No. times previously traveled to a dengue-endemic country | <0.0001 | 0.004 | |||||||
| 0–1 | 447 (37) | 5 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 2–5 | 477 (40) | 35 | 7.3 | 7.0 (2.7–18.0) | <0.0001 | 5.0 (1.8–13.9) | 0.002 | ||
|
| 283 (23) | 38 | 13.4 | 13.7 (5.3–35.3) | <0.0001 | 6.4 (2.1–19.2) | 0.001 | ||
| Previous travel destinations | |||||||||
| Not Asia | 537 | 31 | 5.8 | 1 | |||||
| Asia | 670 (56) | 47 | 7.0 | 1.2 (0.77–2.0) | 0.38 | ||||
| Not Latin America | 661 | 22 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Latin America | 546 (45) | 56 | 10.3 | 3.3 (2.0–5.5) | <0.0001 | 1.6 (0.85–2.9) | 0.15 | ||
| Not Africa | 679 | 41 | 6.0 | 1 | |||||
| Africa | 528 (48) | 37 | 7.0 | 1.2 (0.74–1.9) | 0.50 | ||||
| Primary purpose of current travel | <0.0001 | 0.001 | |||||||
| Tourism | 1,032 (86) | 52 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Work or education | 99 (8) | 8 | 8.1 | 1.7 (0.76–3.6) | 0.20 | 1.3 (0.52–3.3) | 0.57 | ||
| Visit with friends and/or relatives | 76 (6) | 18 | 23.7 | 5.8 (3.2–10.6) | <0.0001 | 4.1 (2.0–8.5) | <0.0001 | ||
| Vaccination status | |||||||||
| Not vaccinated for previous travel | 888 (74) | 46 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Vaccinated for previous travel | 319 (26) | 32 | 10.0 | 2.0 (1.3–3.3) | 0.003 | 1.0 (0.56–1.78) | 0.99 | ||
*DENV, dengue virus; PR, prevalence rate; PRR, prevalence rate ratio; CI, confidence interval; NA, not applicable; IQR, interquartile range.
| Traveler no.: age, y/sex | Country of birth | Destination country (region) | Previous times traveled to developing country | Travel-related signs and symptoms | Dengue-like illness | Vaccinated against yellow fever | IgM-ratio† | IgG-ratio† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1: 33/M | The Netherlands | Philippines (Asia) | 2–5 | Fever, myalgia, headache, retro-orbital pain, diarrhea | Yes | Never | NA | 17.65 |
| 2: 62/M | Germany | Indonesia (Asia) | 0 | Skin rash, diarrhea | No | Never | 51.79 | 38.9 |
| 3: 64/M | The Netherlands | Sri Lanka (Asia) | >10 | Fever, myalgia, arthralgia, head-ache, retro-orbital pain, diarrhea | Yes | In 1992 | NA | 28.3 |
| 4: 41/M | The Netherlands | Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines (Asia) | >10 | None | No | Never | NA | 46.27 |
| 5: 36/F | The Netherlands | Thailand, Singapore (Asia) | 6–10 | Diarrhea | No | Never | 3.34 | NA |
| 6: 37/F | The Netherlands | Indonesia (Asia) | 0 | Fever, myalgia, headache, retro-orbital pain, skin rash | Yes | Never | 48.66 | 142.25 |
| 7: 28/M | The Netherlands | Vietnam (Asia) | 2–5 | None | No | Never | 2.78 | NA |
| 8: 27/M | The Netherlands | India, Nepal (Asia) | 2–5 | Diarrhea | No | Never | 5.11 | NA |
| 9: 68/M | The Netherlands | Surinam (Latin America) | 1 | None | No | In 2000 | NA | 8.91 |
| 10: 26/F | The Netherlands | Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chili, Uruguay (Latin America) | 0 | Fever, myalgia, arthralgia, headache, skin rash, diarrhea | Yes | For this trip | NA | 26.67 |
| 11: 23/F | The Netherlands | Surinam (Latin America) | 1 | Skin rash, diarrhea | No | For this trip | NA | 72.82 |
| 12: 54/F | The Netherlands | Gambia (Africa) | 2–5 | Fever, myalgia, arthralgia, head-ache, retro-orbital pain, diarrhea | Yes | For this trip | NA | 26.87 |
| 13: 27/M | The Netherlands | Mali, Burkina Faso (Africa) | 2–5 | Skin rash, diarrhea | No | In 2000 | 18.15 | NA |
| 14: 52/M | The Netherlands | Madagascar (Africa) | 6–10 | Diarrhea | No | In 1992 | 8.82 | NA |
*Ig, immunoglobulin; NA, ratio not available. †Posttravel to pretravel. If the posttravel sample test results were negative for a type of anti-DENV, the pretravel serum sample was not tested for that type of antibody.
Twenty-six percent of travelers had received yellow fever vaccination for a previous journey, and 23% received a yellow fever vaccination for the current trip, just after blood donation (not shown in
Serologic results suggestive of previous DENV infection were found for 78 (6.5%; 95% CI 5.2%–8.0%) participants (
Fourteen participants (1.2%; 95% CI 0.66%–1.9%) had recent DENV infection, of whom 5 seroconverted only for IgM; 7 seroconverted only for IgG, with a posttravel-to-pretravel ratio of
| Region | No. (%) persons at risk | No. seroconversions | Person-months of travel | Attack rate, % (95% CI) | Incidence rate, %† (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1,207 (100) | 14 | 959.2 | 1.2 (0.66–1.9) | 14.6 (8.3–23.9) |
| Asia | 569 (47) | 8 | 474.3 | 1.4 (0.66–2.7) | 16.9 (7.8–32.0) |
| Southeast Asia | 375 (31) | 6 | 324.0 | 1.6 (0.82–3.7) | 18.5 (9.4–42.7) |
| South Asia | 147 (12) | 2 | 116.4 | 1.4 (0.034–3.3) | 17.2 (0.43–42.4) |
| East Asia | 98 (8) | 0 | 86.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Latin America | 340 (28) | 3 | 261.3 | 0.9 (0.23–2.4) | 11.5 (2.9–31.3) |
| South America | 219 (18) | 3 | 184.5 | 1.4 (0.35–3.7) | 16.3 (4.1–44.3) |
| Central America and Caribbean | 135 (11) | 0 | 96.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Africa | 298 (25) | 3 | 223.5 | 1.0 (0.26–2.7) | 13.4 (3.4–36.5) |
| West and Middle Africa | 113 (9) | 2 | 75.4 | 1.8 (0.30–5.7) | 26.5 (4.5–87.6) |
| East Africa | 140 (12) | 1 | 109.4 | 0.7 (0.036–3.5) | 9.1 (0.46–45.1) |
| Southern Africa | 67 (6) | 0 | 57.0 | 0 | 0 |
*CI, confidence interval; NA, not applicable. †Per 1,000 person-months.
All 14 persons with recent infection were born in non–dengue-endemic countries; 9 were male, and 11 had traveled previously to a dengue-endemic country (
The incidence rate was significantly higher for travel during the rainy months (23.6 vs. 7.5/1,000 person-months; IRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.01–11.6; p = 0.048). Travel during the rainy months was not related to use of insect repellent containing DEET or use of a mosquito net (odds ratio 1.0; p>0.05).
The incidence rate appeared to be higher for male travelers (22.3 vs. 9.0; IRR 2.5, 95% CI 0.83–8.2; p = 0.11), persons who traveled for work or education (23.6 vs. 13.7; IRR 1.7, 95% CI 0.26–6.8; p = 0.47), and those who used insect repellent containing DEET <45% of travel days (18.6 vs. 9.5; IRR 2.0, 95% CI 0.63–7.2; p = 0.26), but differences were not significant. With regard to age, previous travel to a dengue-endemic country, yellow fever vaccination for the current trip, and use of a mosquito net, the IRRs equaled 1.0 (p>0.05).
Recent DENV infection was positively correlated with fever, retro-orbital pain, myalgia, arthralgia, and skin rash (
| Sign or symptom | Total no. | Recent DENV, no. (PR, %) | PRR (95% CI) | p value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fever, temperature | 113 | 5 (4.4) | 5.6 (1.8–17.0) | |
| No fever | 1,094 | 9 (0.8) | 1 | |
| Headache | 398 | 5 (1.3) | 1.1 (0.38–3.4) | 0.83 |
| No headache | 809 | 9 (1.1) | 1 | |
| Retro-orbital pain | 100 | 4 (4.0) | 4.6 (1.4–14.8) | |
| No retro-orbital pain | 1,107 | 10 (0.9) | 1 | |
| Myalgia | 166 | 5 (3.0) | 3.6 (1.2–10.8) | |
| No myalgia | 1,041 | 9 (0.9) | 1 | |
| Arthralgia | 72 | 3 (4.2) | 4.4 (1.2–16.3) | |
| No arthralgia | 1,135 | 11 (1.0) | 1 | |
| Rash | 105 | 5 (4.8) | 6.1 (2.0–18.5) | |
| No rash | 1,102 | 9 (0.8) | 1 | |
| Diarrhea | 581 | 10 (1.7) | 2.7 (0.85–8.7) | 0.092 |
| No diarrhea | 626 | 4 (0.6) | 1 | |
| Dengue-like illness† | 89 | 5 (5.6) | 7.3 (2.4–22.4) | |
| No dengue-like illness | 1,118 | 9 (0.8) | 1 |
*DENV, dengue virus infection; PR, prevalence rate; PRR, prevalence rate ratio; CI, confidence intervals.
In this prospective study, the serology-based attack rate and incidence rate for recent DENV infection in short-term travelers to areas in which dengue is endemic were substantial: 1.2% and 14.6 per 1,000 person-months, respectively. Although most seroconversions occurred in travelers to Southeast and southern Asia, 3 occurred in travelers to sub-Saharan Africa.
The risk for recent infection was significantly related to travel during the rainy months, as others have reported (
For as many as 6.5% of travelers, serology results suggested previous DENV infection. This rate was strongly related to birth in a dengue-endemic country and a history of frequent travel to such countries. Increasing age and the travel purpose of visiting friends or relatives were also predictive for previous DENV infection, as described (
Studies based on febrile travelers returning from the tropics have reported dengue fever in ≈2% of those who sought medical help (
All these studies were retrospective. They were based on persons who sought medical attention after travel and thereby missed persons who never had symptoms, whose symptoms resolved during travel, or who never consulted a doctor. These studies were influenced by referral bias and relied only on posttravel serologic confirmation. They could not compare characteristics between patients and persons who remained well, and the studies lacked valid denominator data to determine absolute risk. Interpreting their findings is therefore difficult.
The best methodologic approach for estimating incidence rates of clinical and subclinical travel-related DENV infections is to follow a cohort of travelers prospectively (
In the other prospective study, performed during 1991–1992, the seroconversion rate for 447 travelers from the Netherlands who spent a median of 4 weeks in Asia was 3.6%, resulting in an incidence rate of 36.9 per 1,000 person-months (
The incidence rate for persons in our study who traveled to sub-Saharan Africa appeared to be substantial (13.4/1,000 person-months), although the 95% CI was wide (3.4–36.5), and cross-reactions with other flaviviruses or previous yellow fever vaccination cannot be excluded. However, cross-reactions with yellow fever vaccination are unlikely because the travelers to Africa who seroconverted for anti-DENV either did not receive a yellow fever vaccination during the study period (2 travelers) or had dengue-like illness (1) (
The ratio of apparent to unapparent infection in our study was 1:1.8. The 2 other prospective studies reported ratios of 1:0.75 (
Our study has some limitations. First, our sample size was too small to yield a precise estimate of disease incidence per region or per destination. For example, travelers to Southeast Asia are considered to be at higher risk than travelers to other regions (
A final limitation is that, although the serologic tests used are highly sensitive and specific, false-negative and false-positive test results may have occurred. For example, 7 travelers seroconverted only for anti-DENV IgG and not for anti-DENV IgM. Although this may be because of false-positive IgG or false-negative IgM test results, these results may also suggest secondary infection. Unfortunately, no test characteristics are available that apply exactly to our study design; the best available test characteristics are probably those from studies that used paired serum samples (
Unfortunately, no true standard exists for confirming or ruling out DENV infections. Even a plaque-reduction neutralization test can cross-react (
In conclusion, although valid data regarding the actual frequency of DENV infection in international travelers is elusive, our prospective study confirms that the incidence rate for recent DENV infection in short-term travelers to areas in which dengue is endemic is substantial. We found no differences in incidence rate compared with other serology-based prospective cohort studies performed in the 1990s. Thus, the increase in annually reported dengue cases from network studies is possibly related to the increase in international travel and the expansion of DENV and its vector to new areas rather than to an increase in DENV transmission. Until an effective and safe vaccine that provides effective, long-term immunity against all 4 serotypes of DENV has been developed, the only useful preventive measure for travelers to areas where dengue is endemic is to avoid mosquito bites, particularly during the rainy season.
We thank the nurses and medical doctors of the Public Health Service Amsterdam for their assistance in participant inclusion and data collection; Henk Gilis, Henk Hofwegen, and Jorn Smit for serologic testing; Floor Elfrink and Bart Maertzdorf for facilitating data management; Roel Coutinho and Marion Koopmans for their critical review of the manuscript; and Lucy D. Phillips for editorial review.
This study was financially supported by grant 7115 0001 from ZonMw, the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.
Mr Baaten works in infectious diseases control and travel medicine at the Public Health Service Amsterdam and the National Coordination Centre for Traveller’s Health Advice, the Netherlands. His primary research interest is the epidemiology of travel-related infectious diseases.