The topic of motor vehicle crashes among the elderly is dynamic and multi-faceted requiring a comprehensive and synergistic approach to intervention planning. This approach must be based on the values of a given population as well as health statistics and asserted through community, organizational and policy strategies. An integrated summary of the predictors (quantitative research), and views (qualitative research) of the older drivers and their stakeholders, does not currently exist. This study provided an explicit socio-ecological view explaining the interrelation of possible causative factors, an integrated summary of these causative factors, and empirical guidelines for developing public health interventions to promote older driver safety. Using a mixed methods approach, we were able to compare and integrate main findings from a national crash dataset with perspectives of stakeholders. We identified: 11 multi-causal factors for safe elderly driving; the importance of the environmental factors - previously underrated in the literature- interacting with behavioral and health factors; and the interrelatedness among many socio-ecological factors. For the first time, to our knowledge, we conceptualized the fundamental elements of a multi-causal health promotion plan, with measurable intermediate and long-term outcomes. After completing the detailed plan we will test the effectiveness of this intervention on multiple levels.
As our population ages, older driver safety increasingly evokes public health concern. Statistics show that in 2001, the 27.5 million licensed drivers age 65 and older in the US experienced, based on miles driven, higher rates of fatal crashes than most other groups (
Factors contributing to unsafe driving (
Driving cessation should not be considered the immediate and appropriate solution to curtail the inherent risk associated with driving and normal aging, especially given our car-dependent society and the dearth of community-based mobility alternatives (
The complex challenges associated with older driver safety call for a multi-system assessment and intervention approach to decrease mortality and morbidity, to facilitate older adults driving longer and safer, and to find acceptable solutions for those who can no longer drive. For example, such an approach might include: offering health behavioral strategies; providing adaptations and enhancements; and developing regulatory policy.
Population health promotion is defined by
Predictors of safe driving have been identified in the literature, yet they are not integrated into a meaningful causative model. The Precede-Proceed Model of Health Promotion (PPMHP) provides a means to organize factors at multiple social-ecological levels into a theoretical framework so that targeted interventions can be developed (
Mixed methods research provides a viable means for examining the values and principles of a population, in conjunction with an analysis of determinants that occurs on the societal or community level. This methodology involves integrating quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis within a single study or program of inquiry (
The topic of motor vehicle crashes among the elderly is dynamic and multi-faceted and thus, requires a comprehensive and synergistic approach to intervention planning. This approach must be based on the values of a given population as well as health statistics, and asserted through community, organizational and policy strategies. Existing research has separately examined specific individual-level issues that limit driving ability (impairments, medical conditions, medications and behaviors), has identified environmental barriers and facilitators, and has proposed guidelines and options for alternative methods of transportation. An integrated summary of the predictors (quantitative research), and views (qualitative research) of the older drivers and their stakeholders, does not currently exist. We are therefore lacking (1) an explicit socio-ecological view that explains the interrelation of possible causative factors, (2) an integrated summary of these causative factors obtained through quantitative and qualitative methods, and (3) empirical guidelines for developing public health interventions to promote older driver safety.
We anticipate that a variety of audiences involved in older driver safety issues will benefit from the integrated findings of this study. As healthcare providers, consumers, researchers, and policy makers are inundated with unmanageable amounts of information, our integrated quantitative results illustrating the socio-ecological factors and their interrelatedness may provide a basis for rational decision making for future interventions. Further, the perspectives of older drivers and other stakeholders will provide insight as to the knowledge, values and beliefs of this cohort. Finally the qualitative findings compared and integrated against the existing quantitative data, will provide structure for development of a multi-system intervention plan.
Applying a socio-ecological perspective to examine older driver safety in the US, we asked the following four questions:
From a national crash dataset (Fatality Analysis Rating System -FARS 2003), among drivers aged 65 and older, what are the main risk and protective factors, and the age interaction among these factors, for the driving injury (yes/no) outcome? From a qualitative meta-synthesis, how do the stakeholder perspectives, needs, and goals for safe and unsafe driving outcomes support or inform the salient factors found in the FARS dataset? Given the answers to questions 1 and 2, what are the modifiable determinants (most important and changeable risk and protective factors) of unsafe (injurious) driving? What are the main components, and intermediate and long-term objectives of an intervention to curtail unsafe (injurious) driving and promote safe driving on a population-based level?
Organizing the socio-ecological determinants into a structural model (depicting the main risk and protective factors and their association to safe and unsafe driving by each domain of the PRECEDE phase of the PPMHP) (
From a systematic literature review conducted on older driver safety, we used the structural model developed by
We used the FARS dataset, a world-renowned recording system for fatal crashes that: (1) occur in all US states (as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico); (2) happen on public roadways; and (3) result in a death within 30 days of the crash (
For this cross-sectional analysis, we designated Younger Drivers (aged 35–54 years) as our controls, and Older Drivers (aged 65 and older) as our cases. With 6,445 Older Drivers and 20,077 Younger Drivers, there was sufficient statistical power to detect differences between these groups. Because significant variation exists within age categories (
In addition to age, inclusion in the study depended on drivers being involved in motor vehicle crashes during 2003. We excluded drivers with missing data for age or injury severity (dependent variable); drivers that do not normally travel on public roads (snowmobiles or farm equipment); and drivers of heavy trucks (school buses or motor homes); and vehicles with unknown body types. The final sample size was 19,782 with 14,083 Younger Drivers and 5,774 Older Drivers.
From the 178 FARS variables, we excluded 146 variables that (1) did not contribute significant information (eg, unique identifiers); (2) did not meet the scope of our research questions (eg, vehicle identification number); (3) that had large counts of missing data (eg, drug test results); or (4) were prone to multicolinearity. As a result, the remaining 32 variables were conceptually congruent with the domains of the PPMHP and consistent with our previous work on older driver safety (
Using SPSS 14.0 [SPSS, 2005] we performed a descriptive analysis, bivariate analysis, and binary logistic regression. After inspecting the data for distribution and completeness we excluded variables with more than 8% missing data from subsequent analyses. We used bivariate analyses to (1) examine the relationships of the 32 explanatory variables to the outcome variable, and to (2) observe the relationship between age-related licensure renewal policies and injury outcome. The variable
For our meta-synthesis, we included studies that: (1) were conducted in the US; (2) drew perceptions from older driver stakeholders; and (3) provided rich narrative results pertaining to needs, factors influencing safety, and safety priorities of older driver stakeholders. The six studies to meet our criteria illustrated stakeholder perspectives on safety factors, including decision making (
We analyzed the studies descriptively and profiled each study by funding source, research questions, study method, and respondents (age, socio-economic status and geography of residence). Our content analysis used the structural model for older driver safety (
To interpret the main findings (risk and protective factors) pertaining to older driver safety, within a relevant context, we used a mixed methods approach (Creswell 2005). Within the PPMHP framework, we compared and integrated the findings from the qualitative meta-synthesis with the quantitative results (findings from the binary logistic regression model). The interpretation of this expanded coverage process (
The expanded coverage design (
The sample included 29% (5,744) older drivers. Gender comprised 66.6% (3,827) males and 33.4% (1,917) females. About 85% experienced an injury from the crash. Most crashes (94.9%) were non-alcohol related. In most cases, older drivers wore a restraint (72.5%), were registered vehicle owners (85.5%), and had a valid drivers’ license for the vehicle they operated during the crash (97.5%). Crashes generally occurred on straight roads (84.4%), in dry road conditions (84.4%), and during daylight hours (79.5%).
Although almost all the variables were significant at
From the 32 variables identified as conceptually congruent with the PPMHP model, we had representation in five domains: health (2 variables), behavior (3 variables), environment (21 variables), reinforcing (5 variables), and predisposing (1 variable). The Hosmer and Lemoshow test (
After controlling for age, 6 main effects were evident: health (1 variable), behavioral (3 variables), environmental (11 variables) and predisposing (1 variable) domains. Compared to males (health domain
We synopsized the results of the qualitative data analysis in two ways, according to the structural model (coding rubric) and a meta-synthesis of the qualitative findings. Thematic analysis using the coding rubric connected the data to the domains of the PPMHP and expanded the structural model. The qualitative data illustrated the reciprocal relationships between factors in the health domain, driving and quality of life. The behavior and lifestyle domain factors included respondent’s criteria for judging a behavior as safe or unsafe as well as data showing the influence of lifestyle and roles on driving choices. Participants commented on the physical, social, and economic and service related aspects of the environmental domain. Predisposing factors included views about driving as a right versus a privilege, attitudes about dependence, and knowledge of older driver safety resources. Reinforcing factors included family and friends’ involvement, professionals’ knowledge, and communication strategies that facilitated driving interventions. Enabling factors discussed age based licensing and state policies that require reporting unsafe drivers. Health education factors included the acceptability of assessment, preferences for assessment provider, location and information and counseling needs and preferences. Although available, a detailed discussion of the meta-synthesis results is beyond the scope of this paper.
For ease of reading we summarized each of the 11 findings according to their multi-method meta-matrices. First, we discussed the four interaction effects, then the seven main effects, and next the additional significant quantitative and qualitative findings that could not be compared or integrated but contributed meaningful information to extend the PPMHP.
In the absence of available qualitative data, some significant quantitative findings (protective and risk factors) could not be compared or integrated. Protective factors (reduction in risk of injury) pertaining to the physical environment included vehicle body type (light pickups and vans), not traveling on the national highway system, traveling in urban areas, and not having the airbags deployed. Inherent to some of these factors were the use of passive protective strategies, for example, vehicle body type and travel in urban areas (more structured environment), which has implications for education in an intervention plan. However we also recognize that these variables may be proxies for other underlying factors. For example driving at low speed may partly explain the protective nature of not traveling on the national highway system, or not having the airbags deployed; which of course underscores the continued need for proper speed enforcement. Risk factors pertained to the physical environment and unsafe behavior and included not having a compliant drivers’ license, using alcohol, not using restraints, traveling on all days of the week except Sundays, and experiencing harmful events (collision with a fixed object, collision while the motor vehicle was in transport, and rollover crashes). Although most of these risk factors were not surprising we were amazed by the magnitude of the most harmful events where drivers had up to a 266 increased likelihood of sustaining injuries in crashes. Many educational and law enforcement strategies already exist to manage most of these risk factors and we support the continuation of those.
Four of the six studies revealed perspectives to help elucidate the relationship of the economic environment to safe and unsafe driving as it pertained to the costs of maintaining a personal vehicle (including insurance), the responsibility and power afforded to family members who take over the costs for insurance and vehicle maintenance, the high and low costs of alternative transportation, and the perceived financial-related pros and cons of using alternative transportation as opposed to maintaining a personal vehicle. The economic factors influenced the decisions of the older drivers (following rules set by adult children or to seek driving assessments), thus establishing a link with behavioral domain.
Four of the six research studies revealed perceptions and preferences about assessment, education or counseling services. A lack of knowledge exists among older drivers about the available resources and psychological deterrents are evident that may prevent them from seeking help (
For drivers who employed driving restrictions, these actions resulted in severe activity limitations and reduced societal participation (
In considering each of the 11 findings we ascertained that the multiple risk factors can perhaps be best reduced, and protective factors be best enhanced, through a multi-level (individual-, community- or population-level), multi-causal (health, environmental, behavioral) health promotion program.
These 11 findings illustrate, unlike the current mainstream literature, the critical importance of the environment on driving outcomes. From the systematic literature review (SLR) on older driver safety
In
The outcomes of the health promotion program may be measured on two levels: intermediate (3 months–1 year) and long-term outcomes (1–5 years). We anticipate immediate changes to occur on the level of knowledge, awareness, and insight. These changes will elicit behavioral changes indicative of safer choices and actions. Ultimately, following the postulates of the PPMHP model, we should be able to measure safer driving outcomes as indicated by decreased morbidity and mortality, as well as appropriate use of alternative transportation. Additionally community organizing efforts may further influence safe mobility initiatives, including third party payer reimbursement for driving evaluations, or safer vehicle and driving environment designs.
The limitations of this study pertain to the heterogeneity of datasets. Unlike the FARS dataset, which were based on crashes in which a fatality occurred, the qualitative data focused on driving and alternative forms of transportation among older adults and their stakeholders. Although we have taken measures to reduce the distilled effect of the qualitative information, we recognize that researcher bias could have influenced the analysis and interpretation of the final findings. Nevertheless, this model driven mixed method research has enabled us to understand our data within the context of the participants’ experiences, both from a multitude of compared or integrated determinants, and from a public health perspective. As such we identified the critical determinants for older driver safety and constructed a multi-level, multi-causal health promotion plan, with measurable outcomes. Although much needs to be done to discern the exact details of the intervention, this research positions us to finalize the empirically driven health promotion program.
Via the guiding principles of the PPMHP, and from an analysis of a national crash dataset, this study identified and quantified the socio-ecological determinants of safe/unsafe driving among older adults. Using a mixed methods approach we compared or integrated the risk and protective factors (obtained from the logistic regression model) with the stakeholder perspectives (obtained from six qualitative studies). From this work we identified the critical multi-causal factors for safe elderly driving; showed the importance of the environmental factors - previously underrated in the literature- as they interact with the behavioral and health factors; and illustrated the inter-relatedness among these main domains and the underlying predisposing, reinforcing and enabling factors. As such, for the first time to our knowledge, we conceptualized the fundamental elements of a multi-causal health promotion plan, with measurable intermediate and long-term outcomes. After developing the detailed plan we will be able to test the effectiveness of this intervention on multiple levels (individual-, community- or population-based).
This research is funded by the US Dept. of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, sponsor award # K01 CE000497 (2004–2007). The principal investigator is Dr. Sherrilene Classen, Department of Occupational Therapy, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida (UF).
Conceptualization of the precede-proceed model of health promotion (
Algorithm for the mixed methods expanded coverage design used in “Public Health Model to Promote Safe Elderly Driving” study. We used the PRECEDE phase of the Precede-Proceed Model of Health Promotiona and a systematic literature review on older driver safety (
Health promotion intervention on empirically determined modifiable determinants of motor vehicle crashes with anticipated intermediate and long-term outcomes for older drivers.
Multi-method meta-matrix template used to compare and integrate significant findings from the logistic regression model with the comparable qualitative finding(s)
| Referent category | Level 1
| Level 2
| |
| Description and interpretation of a comparable theme from the meta-synthesis, corresponding to the above mentioned finding from the logistic regression model
| Description and interpretation of a comparable theme from the meta-synthesis, corresponding to the above mentioned finding from the logistic. regression model.
| Description and interpretation of a comparable theme from the meta-synthesis, corresponding to the above mentioned finding from the logistic regression model.
| |
| Synopsis and interpretation of the compared data. | |||
| Compared or integrated findings discussed in terms of the existing literature, the PPMHP and implications for intervention planning. | |||
Binary logistic regression model showing the significant age interactions and explanatory variables, from the five domains of the PPMHP, with the dependent variable (injury: yes/no)
| Gender | ||||
| Male | (Referent) | |||
| Female | <0.01 | 1.51 | 1.29 | 1.73 |
| Driver license compliance | ||||
| Valid | (Referent) | |||
| Not Valid | 0.04 | 1.39 | 1.02 | 1.90 |
| Driver drinking | ||||
| Not drinking (Referent) | (Referent) | |||
| Drinking | <0.01 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.54 |
| System restraint use | ||||
| Yes | (Referent) | |||
| None | <0.01 | 6.20 | 5.03 | 7.63 |
| Day of week | ||||
| Sunday | (Referent) | |||
| Monday | 0.18 | 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.48 |
| Tuesday | 0.02 | 1.33 | 1.05 | 1.69 |
| Wednesday | <0.01 | 1.64 | 1.27 | 2.13 |
| Thursday | <0.01 | 1.46 | 1.14 | 1.86 |
| Friday | 0.01 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 1.74 |
| Saturday | 0.03 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 1.62 |
| Hour of day | ||||
| 9PM-7AM | (Referent) | |||
| 8AM-1PM | 0.01 | 0.72 | 0.57 | 0.90 |
| 2PM-8PM | <0.01 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| Registered vehicle owner | ||||
| Driver was registered owner | (Referent) | |||
| Driver was not owner | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.48 | 1.00 |
| Number of lanes | ||||
| Two | (Referent) | |||
| One | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.87 |
| Three | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 1.17 |
| Four-seven | 0.29 | 0.89 | 0.75 | 1.09 |
| Road surface condition | ||||
| Dry | (Referent) | |||
| Adverse | <0.01 | 1.50 | 1.16 | 1.95 |
| Rural vs. urban | ||||
| Rural | (Referent) | |||
| Urban | <0.01 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| Body type | ||||
| SUVs | (Referent) | |||
| Auto and auto derivatives | <0.01 | 2.00 | 1.64 | 2.44 |
| Vans, trucks, and light pick-ups | 0.01 | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.94 |
| Most harmful event | ||||
| Collision w/object not fixed | (Referent) | |||
| Collision w/fixed object | <0.01 | 249.55 | 152.61 | 408.03 |
| Motor vehicle in transport | <0.01 | 30.99 | 23.82 | 40.31 |
| Non-collision | <0.01 | 265.68 | 155.37 | 454.32 |
| Relation to junction | ||||
| Non-junction | (Referent) | |||
| Intersection-related | <0.01 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 0.72 |
| Interchange-related | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.64 | 1.51 |
| Principal impact | ||||
| 12 o’clock | (Referent) | |||
| 1– 3 o’clock | 0.03 | 1.61 | 1.05 | 2.47 |
| 4 – 6 o’clock | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.71 | 2.05 |
| 7 – 9 o’clock | <0.01 | 4.75 | 2.87 | 7.86 |
| 10 −11 o’clock | 0.15 | 1.47 | 0.87 | 2.48 |
| Bottom or roof top | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0.28 | 3.33 |
| Traffic control device | ||||
| Functioning | (Referent) | |||
| Not present | 0.01 | 0.79 | 0.65 | 0.95 |
| Number of occupants | ||||
| Driver only | (Referent) | |||
| One passenger | 0.34 | 1.18 | 0.84 | 1.64 |
| ≥ Two passengers | 0.05 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 1.01 |
| Airbag deployment | ||||
| Deployed | (Referent) | |||
| Did not deployed | <0.01 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| National highway system | ||||
| On NHS | (Referent) | |||
| Not on NHS | <0.01 | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.91 |
| Straight | (Referent) | |||
| Lane-related | <0.01 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.81 |
| Maneuvers | 0.02 | 0.59 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| Making a left | <0.01 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.87 |
| Negotiating a curve/changing | 0.35 | 1.15 | 0.86 | 1.54 |
| Number previous other MV convictions | 0.03 | 0.65 | 0.44 | 0.97 |
p < 0.05; In the case of each of the four significant age interactions, we did not include the values of the main effects.