Generic Ebola response (ER) : modeling the spread of disease impact & intervention. Version 2.3

Model Overview: We built a spreadsheet-based model that (1) allows user to estimate the number of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) cases in a community, (2) tracks patients susceptibility to disease through infectivity, incubation, recovery, and death, and (3) calculates the spread of EVD and its impact for 300 days. The timeline of 300 days is longer than most of the previously recorded outbreaks of EVD or Marburg Virus Disease.

Model Description: Estimate the daily movement of patients using disease probabilities for three (3) different categories of isolation: Hospitalization, Home Isolation, and No Home Isolation. We used probabilities, drawn from reports of previous EVD outbreaks, to model the daily movement of patients between and within the various disease categories (i.e., susceptible, incubation, infectious, revocery/death).

Type of Model: Susceptibile, Incubation, Infectious, Recovery (SIIR) Model.

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